Each team's underlying strength — attack and defence from xG — run through our market-calibrated match engine and simulated across the season.

Expected Table

10,000 simulations

#	Team	Proj pts	Att	Def	Title	Top 4	Rel
1	Arsenal	8(2.58)	1.06	0.20	55%	85%	—
2	Man City	8(2.50)	1.37	0.57	25%	79%	0.1%
3	Man Utd	7(2.36)	1.63	0.87	9.4%	66%	0.2%
4	Brentford	7(2.20)	1.45	0.80	4.5%	53%	0.3%
5	Brighton	6(1.94)	1.58	1.22	1.9%	30%	1.0%
6	Liverpool	5(1.72)	1.16	0.99	1.1%	23%	3.3%
7	Nott'm Forest	5(1.71)	0.82	0.70	0.7%	19%	2.3%
8	Fulham	4(1.40)	1.17	1.33	0.3%	8.7%	7.0%
9	Sunderland	4(1.38)	0.94	0.84	0.5%	8.4%	6.3%
10	Everton	4(1.25)	0.85	1.02	0.4%	6.9%	9.9%
11	Bournemouth	4(1.22)	0.90	1.02	0.2%	3.7%	9.1%
12	Chelsea	3(1.15)	1.23	1.02	0.2%	3.5%	12%
13	Newcastle	3(1.09)	0.64	1.16	0.2%	4.4%	16%
14	Hull City	3(0.98)	0.50	1.08	—	2.0%	20%
15	Leeds	3(0.94)	0.97	0.96	0.2%	3.7%	23%
16	Ipswich Town	3(0.91)	0.98	1.30	0.1%	1.7%	26%
17	Crystal Palace	2(0.76)	0.99	1.38	0.1%	1.4%	41%
18	Spurs	2(0.76)	0.59	1.17	—	0.7%	33%
19	Coventry City	2(0.75)	0.61	1.01	—	0.3%	36%
20	Aston Villa	2(0.57)	0.55	1.15	—	0.2%	55%

Expected table from underlying strength — not the actual standings. Match probabilities inherit the calibration shown on Model vs Market.