Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
EvertonThe model favours Everton at 49%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (9%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 12.7% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Crystal Palace 16th in the league, Everton 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (7th); weakest on attacking threat, 17th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Predicted Lineups