Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
EvertonThe model sees this close: Crystal Palace 44%, draw 21%, Everton 35%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 10.5% of their squad weight against Everton's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Crystal Palace 19th in the league, Everton 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Predicted Lineups