Matchup Intelligence
Chelsea
EvertonThe model sees this close: Chelsea 42%, draw 23%, Everton 35%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.
Chelsea carry the heavier absence: 16.6% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Chelsea 16th in the league, Everton 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Chelsea 3-4-2-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (2nd) and creativity (7th); weakest on discipline, 16th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Predicted Lineups