Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
EvertonThe model favours Everton at 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.
Everton carry the heavier absence: 4.0% of their squad weight against Hull City's 1.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Hull City 16th in the league, Everton 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Predicted Lineups