Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
EvertonThe model sees this close: Aston Villa 31%, draw 24%, Everton 44%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Aston Villa 19th in the league, Everton 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Predicted Lineups