Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
EvertonThe model favours Everton at 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Everton's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Aston Villa 20th in the league, Everton 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Predicted Lineups