Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
EvertonThe model favours Everton at 47%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (9%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 2.0.
Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 15th in the league, Everton 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Predicted Lineups