Matchup Intelligence
Nott'm Forest
EvertonThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 49%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.
Nott'm Forest carry the heavier absence: 10.3% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Nott'm Forest 8th in the league, Everton 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Predicted Lineups