Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
EvertonThe model sees this close: Newcastle 33%, draw 25%, Everton 43%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Everton's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Newcastle 20th in the league, Everton 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Predicted Lineups