Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
EvertonThe model favours Leeds at 55%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 8.9% of their squad weight against Everton's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Leeds 18th in the league, Everton 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Predicted Lineups