Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
EvertonThe model sees this close: Leeds 41%, draw 25%, Everton 34%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 7.5% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Leeds 10th in the league, Everton 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Everton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Predicted Lineups