Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
Crystal PalaceThe model favours Bournemouth at 74%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.9 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 65%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 12.7% of their squad weight against Bournemouth's 11.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Bournemouth 8th in the league, Crystal Palace 17th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (2nd) and attacking threat (8th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (7th); weakest on attacking threat, 17th of 20.
Predicted Lineups