Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
Crystal PalaceThe model favours Ipswich Town at 50%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.3 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 75%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 16.5% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Ipswich Town 1st in the league, Crystal Palace 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups