Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
Crystal PalaceThe model favours Ipswich Town at 54%.
The single most likely score is 2-2 (7%), from expected goals of 2.8 to 2.0.
Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 81%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 10.5% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Ipswich Town 1st in the league, Crystal Palace 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups