Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
Crystal PalaceThe model sees this close: Hull City 40%, draw 24%, Crystal Palace 36%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 12.7% of their squad weight against Hull City's 11.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Hull City 5th in the league, Crystal Palace 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (7th); weakest on attacking threat, 17th of 20.
Predicted Lineups