Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
Crystal PalaceThe model favours Aston Villa at 47%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Crystal Palace's 12.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Aston Villa 19th in the league, Crystal Palace 7th of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (7th); weakest on attacking threat, 17th of 20.
Predicted Lineups