Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
Crystal PalaceThe model favours Sunderland at 66%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.6 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 68%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 10.5% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Sunderland 15th in the league, Crystal Palace 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups