Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
Crystal PalaceThe model sees this close: Newcastle 39%, draw 22%, Crystal Palace 39%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Crystal Palace's 10.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Newcastle 20th in the league, Crystal Palace 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups