Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
Crystal PalaceThe model sees this close: Newcastle 43%, draw 22%, Crystal Palace 35%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 1.7.
Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 12.7% of their squad weight against Newcastle's 9.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Newcastle 20th in the league, Crystal Palace 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (7th); weakest on attacking threat, 17th of 20.
Predicted Lineups