Matchup Intelligence
Everton
ChelseaThe model sees this close: Everton 36%, draw 21%, Chelsea 43%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (8%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 2.0.
Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 4.0% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Everton 1st in the league, Chelsea 18th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Chelsea 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (6th) and creativity (8th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups