Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
ChelseaThe model favours Chelsea at 47%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (8%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 2.2.
Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%.
Chelsea carry the heavier absence: 16.6% of their squad weight against Crystal Palace's 12.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Crystal Palace 17th in the league, Chelsea 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Chelsea 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (7th); weakest on attacking threat, 17th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (2nd) and creativity (7th); weakest on discipline, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups