Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
ChelseaThe model sees this close: Bournemouth 37%, draw 21%, Chelsea 41%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (8%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 2.0.
Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Chelsea's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Bournemouth 5th in the league, Chelsea 14th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Chelsea 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (6th) and creativity (8th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups