Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
ChelseaThe model sees this close: Ipswich Town 35%, draw 21%, Chelsea 44%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (8%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%.
Chelsea carry the heavier absence: 16.6% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Ipswich Town 1st in the league, Chelsea 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Chelsea 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (2nd) and creativity (7th); weakest on discipline, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups