Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
ChelseaThe model favours Chelsea at 61%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (10%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 3.8% and 4.0% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Hull City 20th in the league, Chelsea 8th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Chelsea 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (6th) and creativity (8th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups