Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
ChelseaThe model sees this close: Sunderland 46%, draw 22%, Chelsea 33%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 4.0% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 4th in the league, Chelsea 14th of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Chelsea 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (6th) and creativity (8th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups