Matchup Intelligence
Nott'm Forest
ChelseaThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 52%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.
Chelsea carry the heavier absence: 16.6% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Nott'm Forest 12th in the league, Chelsea 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1, Chelsea 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (2nd) and creativity (7th); weakest on discipline, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups