Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
ChelseaThe model favours Chelsea at 47%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.
Chelsea carry the heavier absence: 16.6% of their squad weight against Newcastle's 9.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Newcastle 15th in the league, Chelsea 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Chelsea 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (2nd) and creativity (7th); weakest on discipline, 16th of 20.
Predicted Lineups