Matchup Intelligence
Everton
BrightonThe model sees this close: Everton 33%, draw 21%, Brighton 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (8%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 2.0.
Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.
Brighton carry the heavier absence: 19.0% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Brighton 17th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Brighton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and defensive solidity (1st); weakest on ball recovery, 17th of 20.
Predicted Lineups