Matchup Intelligence
Everton
BrightonThe model sees this close: Everton 33%, draw 19%, Brighton 48%.
The single most likely score is 2-2 (7%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 81%.
Brighton carry the heavier absence: 24.9% of their squad weight against Everton's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Brighton 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Brighton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and creativity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups