Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
BrightonThe model sees this close: Sunderland 45%, draw 20%, Brighton 36%.
The single most likely score is 2-2 (7%), from expected goals of 2.3 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 79%.
Brighton carry the heavier absence: 24.9% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 4th in the league, Brighton 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Brighton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and creativity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups