Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
BrightonThe model sees this close: Fulham 33%, draw 21%, Brighton 47%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (8%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%.
Brighton carry the heavier absence: 19.0% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Fulham 19th in the league, Brighton 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Brighton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and defensive solidity (1st); weakest on ball recovery, 17th of 20.
Predicted Lineups