Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
BrightonThe model sees this close: Fulham 36%, draw 16%, Brighton 48%.
The single most likely score is 2-3 (5%), from expected goals of 2.9 to 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals 95%, both teams to score 91%.
Brighton carry the heavier absence: 24.9% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Fulham 10th in the league, Brighton 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Brighton 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and creativity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups