Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Coventry CityThe model favours Fulham at 60%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.
Fulham carry the heavier absence: 6.4% of their squad weight against Coventry City's 3.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Fulham 3rd in the league, Coventry City 18th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Coventry City 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and defensive solidity (12th); weakest on ball recovery, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups