Matchup Intelligence
Everton
BournemouthThe model sees this close: Everton 32%, draw 24%, Bournemouth 44%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.7% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Everton 2nd in the league, Bournemouth 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (2nd) and attacking threat (8th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups