Matchup Intelligence
Everton
BournemouthThe model sees this close: Everton 46%, draw 23%, Bournemouth 31%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Everton's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Everton 1st in the league, Bournemouth 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups