Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
BournemouthThe model sees this close: Crystal Palace 42%, draw 21%, Bournemouth 37%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 75%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Crystal Palace's 10.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Crystal Palace 19th in the league, Bournemouth 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups