Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 62%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (10%), from expected goals of 1.2 to 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 8.0% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Ipswich Town 20th in the league, Bournemouth 4th of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups