Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
BournemouthThe model sees this close: Ipswich Town 44%, draw 21%, Bournemouth 35%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Ipswich Town 19th in the league, Bournemouth 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups