Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Hull City's 1.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Hull City 16th in the league, Bournemouth 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups