Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 59%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (13%), from expected goals of 0.9 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 8.0% of their squad weight against Hull City's 4.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Hull City 20th in the league, Bournemouth 8th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (8th) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups