Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 56%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Bournemouth's 11.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Aston Villa 19th in the league, Bournemouth 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (2nd) and attacking threat (8th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups