Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Aston Villa's 9.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Aston Villa 20th in the league, Bournemouth 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups