Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
BournemouthThe model sees this close: Spurs 32%, draw 27%, Bournemouth 41%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 7.3% and 8.0% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Spurs 5th in the league, Bournemouth 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and defensive solidity (6th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups