Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 47%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Spurs's 5.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Spurs 7th in the league, Bournemouth 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups