Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 60%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (9%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 68%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Bournemouth's 11.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 15th in the league, Bournemouth 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (2nd) and attacking threat (8th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups