Matchup Intelligence
Nott'm Forest
BournemouthThe model sees this close: Nott'm Forest 37%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 38%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.7% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Nott'm Forest 8th in the league, Bournemouth 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (2nd) and attacking threat (8th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups