Matchup Intelligence
Man Utd
BournemouthThe model favours Man Utd at 79%.
The single most likely score is 3-1 (8%), from expected goals of 3.4 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 68%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 11.6% and 11.6% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Man Utd 1st in the league, Bournemouth 13th of 20.
Expected shapes: Man Utd 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and creativity (1st); weakest on defensive solidity, 7th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups