Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 7.9% and 8.0% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Leeds 11th in the league, Bournemouth 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (4th) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups