Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
BournemouthThe model favours Leeds at 53%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Leeds's 8.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Leeds 18th in the league, Bournemouth 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups