Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
BournemouthThe model favours Fulham at 51%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.4 to 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Fulham 7th in the league, Bournemouth 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups