Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
BournemouthThe model favours Bournemouth at 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.7.
Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 8.0% of their squad weight against Fulham's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Fulham 15th in the league, Bournemouth 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Bournemouth 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (4th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups