Matchup Intelligence
Everton
Ipswich TownThe model favours Everton at 54%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.3 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 71%.
Everton carry the heavier absence: 4.0% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Everton 2nd in the league, Ipswich Town 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups