Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
Ipswich TownThe model favours Bournemouth at 72%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.7 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 60%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 8.0% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Bournemouth 4th in the league, Ipswich Town 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups