Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
Ipswich TownThe model sees this close: Aston Villa 32%, draw 23%, Ipswich Town 45%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.5 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Aston Villa 18th in the league, Ipswich Town 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups