Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
Ipswich TownThe model sees this close: Aston Villa 45%, draw 22%, Ipswich Town 34%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Aston Villa 16th in the league, Ipswich Town 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups