Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
Ipswich TownThe model sees this close: Spurs 45%, draw 24%, Ipswich Town 31%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Spurs 10th in the league, Ipswich Town 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups