Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
Ipswich TownThe model favours Sunderland at 64%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.5 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 67%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 4.0% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Sunderland 15th in the league, Ipswich Town 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups