Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
Ipswich TownThe model sees this close: Sunderland 46%, draw 19%, Ipswich Town 35%.
The single most likely score is 2-2 (7%), from expected goals of 2.4 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 80%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Sunderland 16th in the league, Ipswich Town 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups