Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Ipswich TownThe model favours Fulham at 60%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.4 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 67%.
Ipswich Town carry the heavier absence: 4.0% of their squad weight against Fulham's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Fulham 1st in the league, Ipswich Town 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (4th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups